Autonomous vehicles are just around the corner. Tesla has semi-autonomous vehicles for sale today. Waymo, Google, and Uber are all working on fully autonomous vehicles. Delphi, a supplier of auto parts, is selling the sensors necessary for autonomous vehicles to know about their environment.
What will happen to society, jobs, work, travel, and the environment as the autonomous vehicle becomes the norm? This is a speculation on a new world with autonomous vehicles.
In the beginning of the autonomous vehicle world only those early adopters will experience a new life style. Sitting in an autonomous vehicle will be like being in an airplane on the ground. The passenger doesn't care where the vehicle is going, just the vehicle gets to the destination safely and on time.
The world will not have 100% autonomous vehicles soon. It will start slow and build. As it builds, changes will occur in transportation, jobs, and leisure.
The first adoption of autonomous vehicles will be where the most savings of money and labor can be realized. There will also be adoption by those that can afford new technology, but that will be as a status symbol, a toy. The initial commercial impact will be in long haul trucks, street sweepers, garbage trucks, snowplows, delivery vehicles, pizza delivery, and package delivery.
Already long haul trucks have been driven coast to coast autonomously. [ref] Volvo is advertising a self driving garbage truck. Self driving street sweeper is a direct spin off. Snowplows may be more difficult given the size of the blade and parked cars, but on limited access highways a distinct possibility. Pizza delivery can be by drone, but can also be done by small, go cart like vehicles. Punch in a code to unlock door when vehicle arrives. UPS is looking at deploying autonomous carts from a vehicle to deliver more than one package at a time in a limited area. The UPS truck could drive itself to the deployment location.
Those that drive trucks, short haul and long haul, delivery trucks, garbage trucks, street sweepers, snow plows, or other municipal vehicles will be the first to feel the job stress from autonomous vehicles. Drivers of taxis and buses will be affected as well.
Cities and towns will definitely do a cost analysis of employing autonomous vehicles to reduce costs. When current vehicles have reached their useful life, autonomous vehicles will be available for purchase. Unions will push back. It may take decades to change the union contracts or wait for existing employees to retire. Removing the toll booth operators around NYC was technically feasible when the first FastPass was installed. It wasn't until 2017 that all human operator toll booths were removed.
When an autonomous delivery vehicle arrives with goods for a customer, does the customer unload the vehicle? Does the vehicle unload itself? Is there still a person with the delivery vehicle to unload the goods?
Vacation travel will change. RVs will now be a living room on wheels. One will get to a destination in half the time. The vehicle drives 24 hours a day. Fueling a vehicle will need some thought. A robot gas station perhaps? How will humans tell the autonomous vehicle to pull over for a bathroom break or stop for lunch? Yes, RVs and buses have toilets, but not sedans.
How many less cars will on the road? Will there be less congestion? Will autonomous vehicles drive better resulting in less rush hour delays?
Who will benefit? Fleet owners of autonomous vehicles, body shops that customize interiors, software programmers, advanced auto mechanics, and training schools.
Who will lose? Truck drivers, taxi cab drivers, delivery drivers, public works employees, parking lot owners, parking lot attendees, automobile assembly line workers, car dealerships, auto mechanics, the Teamsters Union. Municipalities will have less revenue because there will be less cars to tax, less parking, so less parking meter fees. The parking meter fees represent a significant percentage of some cities revenues. A law was proposed in Massachusetts that will tax autonomous vehicles for 'cruising' around without parking. The law essentially taxes the vehicle at different rates, with passengers, without passengers, etc. This is an attempt to recapture the lost taxes from less cars.
Ford, GM, and others are looking into subscription service for vehicles, not ownership. Cadillacs are already offers normal cars on a subscription basis. Subscription service is going to be required by the auto manufacturers to make up for lost revenue as the number of cars required drops, by some estimates as much as 75%. [ref].
Everyone will pay a monthly fee to be able to 'hail' an autonomous vehicle. What sort of premium services will be available? Will there be 'congestion' pricing, 'time of day' pricing?
Enter into your 'hail a ride' app how far you want to walk from your home, how far to want to walk to work, when you want to leave and arrive at your destination. A vehicle shows up as requested. It may have no passengers, it may be a van pool, it may be a bus. It all depends on your choices and level of service.
Will there be a bus as we know it? Buses run on fixed routes at fixed times to be predictable. It is used, mainly, by those that don't have vehicles today. Buses won't have to run on fixed routes, if they are autonomous. There may be fixed pick up and drop off points, but the buses don't have to follow a fixed route to get to each point. Either a kiosk or a phone app will be used to say which destination you want to go to and from which location you want to be picked up. Routes will be created dynamically based on the real time demand. Less total buses will be needed and can run 24 hours a day.
The displacement of workers due to work sent overseas took decades and affected mainly manufacturing. Autonomous vehicles will affect the entire transportation infrastructure and all the people that work in it and will be rolled out in less than a decade.
Houses will be built without garages. Housing density go up as off street parking will not be required. What other planning and zoning changes will occur? Will there be a surge in customization of vehicles? Boutique fleet owners will provide unusual, exotic rides for special occasions. The living room sofa ride will now be a reality. Will traveling in luxury take on a new meaning? A TV, Internet, lounger, mini-bar, microwave, refrigerator are all items that can be found in a vehicle today. What will be found in the luxury autonomous car of tomorrow? Multiple day rides in an autonomous vehicles will include a bed. Autonomous vehicles may be fueled or charged while they roll, just like midair refueling of military aircraft. Definitely a time saver.
Will there be an entire generation that doesn't know how to drive? The department of motor vehicles will have less cars to register. You will go to DMV to get a state identification card, not a driver's license.
The autonomous vehicle will be a boon to those who are blind and handicapped, or those who cannot drive for some reason. The mobility of seniors will greatly increase.
The challenges today for autonomous vehicles is snow obscures visibility, snow covers the painted lines. Heavy rain and glare are also an issue. Northern climate residents may see a slower roll out of the autonomous vehicle.
The autonomous vehicle will be assisted by other vehicles and by road side devices to help with navigation. Auto manufactures are designing the communication and devices for a smart highway. The smart highway will help to define the autonomous experience. States may have to do a better job with road line painting for the autonomous vehicle fleet. What happens after a road is paved? There are no lines on the road immediately after paving. Will line painting be autonomous too?
What about computer hacking? Vehicles have already been shown to be hackable. Will a terrorist be able to cause death and mayhem on the road?
What about the classic car owners? How will older cars fit into the world of autonomous vehicles? Will they have to be fitted with special sensors?
The decrease in the number of cars will free up resources for other purposes. Commodity prices will fall as demand for iron and copper to build cars go down. Yes, there will be less cars on the road, but will there be more or less miles traveled? Ride sharing would decrease traveled miles, but those that didn't drive will be more mobile. Does oil demand go down or up?
How will criminals use autonomous vehicles?
The Chinese character for crisis, 危機, combines glyphs from danger, 危險, and opportunity, 機會. The world of autonomous vehicles will be different than today, danger for those supporting the non-autonomous world and opportunity for those that embrace the autonomous world. Will there be room for everyone?
